Millennials are a hot topic, from what theyâre eating (avocado toast) to their dating preferences, to their excessive technology use. People can’t seem to get enough.
And honestly, we get itâweâre interested in Millennials, too. But we’re far less interested what theyâre eating or how theyâre finding dates, than in millennial marriages. Itâs been said that millennials place their personal needs and values above all else, question the institution of marriage more than past generations, and have a stronger sense of identity. All of this sparked our curiosity. How do distinct generational traits like these affect the future of millennial marriages across the country?
With this question in mind, we decided to project the percentage of millennials that will be married in the next five, ten, and fifteen years. And while we were at it, we decided to crunch the numbers for Gen Xers and Baby Boomers, too, to see how the generations stacked up relative to one another. Read on to see what we found.
Table of Contents
i. The Percentage of Millennials Predicted to be Married in 5 years by State
ii. The Percentage of Millennials Predicted to be Married in 10 years by State
iii. The Percentage of Millennials Predicted to Be Married in 15 Years by State
iv. The Percentage of Gen Xers Predicted to Be Married in 10 Years by State
v. The Percentage of Baby Boomers Predicted to Be Married in 10 Years by State
vi. Estimating the Future of Marriages by Generation in Every State (Interactive Table)
vii. Wrap Up
viii. Methodology
i. The Percentage of Millennials Predicted to be Married in 5 years by State
All in all, you can expect between 44.3% and 61.3% of the millennial population to be married by 2024 depending on which state youâre from.
According to our calculations, Idaho (58.80%), Wyoming (59.70%), Utah (61.30%), Alaska (56.90%), and Arkansas (58.30%) are among the states projected to have the highest percentage of married millennials in the next five years.
ii. The Percentage of Millennials Predicted to be Married in 10 years by State
Since millennials are tying the knot later than past generations, it makes sense that far more millennials will be married in ten years (when the youngest millennials will be in their early thirties) than in five. While the percentage of millennial marriages in five years range from 44.3% to 61.3% depending on the state, this range increases by about ten percent, from 52.2% to 74%, with another 5 yearsâ time.
Given that 75% of its population is predicted to be married in ten years, Utah takes the cake for the greatest number of projected millennial marriages. Neighboring states, Colorado and Idaho, also topped the list, with 67.30% and 71% of millennials estimated to be married in ten years, respectively.
In some places, like Washington DC and Rhode Island, close to half of the millennial population will remain unmarried ten years from now.
iii. The Percentage of Millennials Predicted to Be Married in 15 Years by State
According to our projections, in fifteen years (2034) weâll see the greatest number of millennial marriages, with percentages ranging from 58.8% to 82.1% across the United States. Interestingly, nearly 75% of Texan millennials will have taken the marriage plunge by then, and in Wyoming and Utah, nearly 80% of millennials will be married.
iv. The Percentage of Gen Xers Predicted to Be Married in 10 Years by State
Now that you have the scoop on the future of millennial marriages, you might be wondering: Whatâs in store for Gen Xers?
According to our projections, the overwhelming majority of Gen Xers will be married in ten years. As was the case with millennial marriages, Utah (84.70%), Wyoming (83.40%), Idaho (82.90%), and Arkansas (82.60%) will have the greatest percentage of married folks ten years from now, in 2039.
v. The Percentage of Baby Boomers Predicted to Be Married in 10 Years by State
Did you think we forgot about you, Baby Boomers? We could not.
Interestingly, these numbers turned out to be very similar to those projected for Gen X. Depending on which state youâre from, anywhere between 71.4% and 84% are predicted to be married in your state. This range is remarkably close to the Gen Xâs (72.7% to 84.7%), which may be due to the fact that marriage rates are much lower for people who are out of their 30s. Many Baby Boomers likely tied the knot in their 20s, 30s, and even 40s, but far fewer said their âI doâsâ in the last decade or two.
vi. Estimating the Future of Marriages by Generation in Every State (Interactive Table)
Interested to see what the future of marriage looks like in your state? All of our findings are broken down for you by generation in the searchable table below.
vii. Wrap Up
Here at the Black Tux, we love two things: marriage, and millennials. And a lot of other things, but we do love millennial marriage. So naturally, we found this study to be a real treat.
Whether youâre a single millennial looking for a realistic view of the next 15 years (minus the horrific battles for potable water), a married millennial couple who can’t find another millennial couple for game night (give it 5 years, kiddos), or a member of an older generation looking to impress your friends with your “mystical, psychic ability” to forecast marriage rates within your state, may this new information serve you well.
viii. Methodology
We used US Census data to estimate the number of Millennials that will be married in 5 years (2024), 10 years (2029), and 15 years (2034) in the 50 largest U.S. cities. This is based on generation-specific national marriage rates, state divorce rates, and the already-married population in each state.